Super Bowl 2024 Pre-game Analysis: Leadership Dynamics
At Mental Metrix, we bring objectivity to the mental metrics that support winning a championship.
Our team explored the dynamics between the head coach and quarterback of Kansas City and San Francisco, respectively. We examined: Leadership Styles, Stress & Anxiety, and Thinking Styles, studying the interplay of head coach and quarterback to provide additional insight on how these two key personnel support each other and how they may impact winning a Championship.
Most pre-game analysis involves a discussion of performance metrics including key wins and losses throughout the year, individual player and team statistics, with only a sprinkle of discussion around team mentality and mindset. We know physical skills are important, but at this level all players are exceptional. We want to understand who has the mentality to win on the day when it matters most. There is no single factor that will determine the outcome of the game, but there are data points that give us insight into the mindset of each team as they gear up for the final game of the season.
Leadership Styles
The image shows different types of leadership across two independent measures – how much agency one demonstrates and how communal one appears. The most people-driven leaders have high communal scores (and will show up on the right half of the circle) and the most results-focused leaders have high agentic scores (and will show up on the top half of the circle). Research indicates that leaders who are both high in agency and highly communal have the highest returns.
We see that both head coaches are more directive (more goal oriented and results driven) than people focused in their leadership styles. However, while overall similar, the quarterbacks appear in different quadrants; Patrick Mahomes will be perceived as being more direct and results driven whereas Brock Purdy will be perceived as more inspirational and communal with his teammates.
Research suggests that leaders that fall in the “Inspirational” and “Coaching” slice of the circle outperform other leadership styles identified on the image. They demonstrate both the ability to get things done (agency) and the human elements of empathy and collaboration (communal). In samples looking at leadership in CEOs, executives that combine high agency and communal aspects of leadership produce the best results for their teams.
Stress and Anxiety
These measures specifically focus on someone's propensity to experience stress and anxiety. Everyone experiences stress and anxiety, and there is such a thing as “good stress” that drives people to take action and pursue goals. Stress during a high-stakes, high-pressure competition can have a positive impact on performance. Not enough stress and anxiety may impact an individual’s ability to stay motivated or mission-focused. Yet, too much stress and anxiety can cause individuals to overthink, experience doubt or negativity, and struggle to bounce-back from adversity.
We see coach Reid experiences lower levels of stress and anxiety than Coach Shanahan. Patrick Mahomes experiences lower levels of stress whereas Brock Purdy experiences lower levels of anxiety.
Individuals higher in stress and anxiety proneness tend to struggle more in higher intensity, higher pressure moments. Coach Reid has the lowest combination of these two scores, meaning that he is more primed for the excitement, intensity, and pressure that comes with playing in a Super Bowl. Higher stress scores tend to make a person feel more negative emotions under pressure. Those higher in anxiety proneness may be quicker to experience the thoughts or physical effects related to anxiety, and therefore need to put in more effort to manage those states to stay locked in to what they control and the demands of the situation.
Thinking Styles
Analytical Thinking and Cognition are two measures of how people process information. High Analytical Thinking shows someone strong in complex problem-solving whereas lower analytical thinking represents a “here and now” thinking style. Cognition measures the amount of “mental load” on the individual. Together these measures may influence how a coach handles critical situations, down and distance or field position, clock management, and other nuances of game strategy.
Coach Reid is lowest in Analytical Thinking yet experiences the least mental load. This likely means that he’ll be able to be mentally present in the game and able to manage the demands and distractions of the environment around him. Reid is balanced out by a QB who has the highest analytical thinking measures. Mahomes also experiences lower mental load than both Shanahan and Purdy of the 49ers.
Unlike the Chiefs who show stark differences in analytical thinking, the 49ers Coach/QB combo shows similar measures in analytical thinking. Purdy is higher in analytical thinking than Shanahan - which is a similar dynamic seen on the Chief’s sideline - but Shanahan has higher analytical thinking measures than Reid. This likely means Shanahan is more inclined to be strategic and planned in how he calls and navigates decisions of the game. Both Shanahan and Purdy demonstrate similar levels of Cognitive load.
Importantly, the 49ers Coach and QB are demonstrating higher mental load than both the Chiefs’ Coach and QB.
Identifying the impact dynamics outlined here may be difficult as an observer watching the game, but there are things to look out for on Game Day. We encourage you to notice the small moments — how a quarterback is speaking when they are caught on the mic, a choice in the heat of play that shifts the momentum, or a key coaching decision on a critical down that has repercussions for managing the rest of the game — to potentially see how and where this data appears.
While our team has developed these data points using a rich source of language for the coaches and QBs respectively, the data are analyzed individually. The reality is these data points all interplay and should be considered holistically. Moreover, we can’t overlook the importance of other coaches and players not analyzed and the impact they will have on the game. That said, based on our analysis on the impact the QB and Coach tandem could have on the game, we give Kansas City the mental edge in this regard.
Who do you think has the winning edge?
Questions to consider while watching the game:
What on-field leadership style — especially for the championship — do you think will have the most impact on game day performance?
Considering the delicate balance of both coaches and players and the sweet spot for stress and anxiety, do you see an advantage for either duo?
Where does analytical thinking have more of an advantage — on the field or making the decisions?
Would you rather have a duo strong in analytical thinking or does counterbalancing this pay off?
Who’s better equipped to deal with the mental demands of the game?
